Tools

Utility-Scale Project Finance & Implied Capex Decoder

A headline says “$540 million for 350 MW” — but what does that imply per watt, per megawatt-hour, and against today's benchmarks? Decode it here.

Announced project figures

Choosing a preset loads its announced figures; every value below stays editable.

100% when the announcement states total capex. Deriva and EnergyRe presets use 65%: their announced figures are debt facilities, not total project cost.

Defaults: solar ~25%, onshore wind ~35%.

Typical: utility solar $1.30–1.75/W-AC (LBNL median $1.69/W-AC), onshore wind $1.20–1.60/W, 4-hour storage $219–350/kWh (BNEF turnkey $219/kWh; installed range up to $350/kWh).

Implied capex$2.37 / WAnnounced $540,000,000 ÷ 65% assumed debt share = $830,769,231 total project cost. Benchmark $1.30–$1.75/W: implied capex is above the range.
Annual generation766,500 MWh
Annual revenue at PPA price$45,990,000Annual opex: $4,200,000
Simple payback19.9 yearsTotal project cost ÷ (revenue − opex); ignores financing, tax and degradation.
Rough LCOE$98.48 / MWh(Annualised capex + opex) ÷ annual generation.
Why might implied capex sit above benchmark?Announced totals often bundle more than plant capex: co-located storage, transmission and interconnection upgrades, land acquisition, development and financing costs, or a multi-phase project scope reported as a single figure. Compare like with like before concluding a project is expensive.

How it works

Implied $/W = total project cost ÷ capacity in watts, where total project cost = announced investment ÷ assumed debt share (100% when the announcement states total capex). Annual generation = capacity × capacity factor × 8,760 hours. Simple payback divides the total project cost by annual revenue minus opex. Rough LCOE annualises the total project cost with the capital recovery factor at the discount rate and life, adds opex, and divides by annual generation.

Assumptions & sources

  • Deriva and EnergyRe presets treat the announced figure as debt at a 65% assumed debt share (Joule Post's own reporting: Deriva's $540M debt implies $2.20–2.57/W all-in); set 100% when an announcement states total capex.
  • Benchmark ranges are editable 2025–26 typical values — utility solar per the LBNL median $1.69/W-AC, storage per BNEF turnkey $219/kWh to $350/kWh installed — not quotes.
  • Announced investment totals often bundle storage, transmission, land, financing and multi-phase scope beyond plant capex.
  • Simple payback and rough LCOE ignore financing structure, tax credits, degradation, curtailment and merchant price exposure.
  • Not investment advice. This tool decodes headlines; it is not a project appraisal.
  • Estimates only — verify figures against the developer's filings and offtake disclosures before citing them.

Related Joule Post coverage: Deriva's $540M Indiana solar financing · EnergyRe's $815M South Carolina financing · Lithuania offshore wind delay and costs